March 28, 2025, wasn’t an ordinary end-of-week for crypto markets. It marked one of the largest options expiries in digital asset history, with more than $14 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts coming due. As the quarter closed, all eyes were on how these expiries might nudge—or jolt—crypto prices.
$14.21 Billion on the Line
The numbers alone are striking:
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Bitcoin Options:
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139,260 contracts expiring
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Notional value: $12.075 billion
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Put-to-call ratio: 0.49
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Max pain point: $85,000
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Ethereum Options:
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1,068,519 contracts
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Notional value: $2.135 billion
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Put-to-call ratio: 0.39
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Max pain point: $2,400
Compared to the previous week’s expiry totals (BTC: $1.8B, ETH: $264M), this surge reflects quarter-end positioning, where institutions tend to rebalance and hedge aggressively.
What These Metrics Tell Us
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Put-to-call ratios below 0.5 indicate traders leaned bullish, expecting prices to rise.
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The maximum pain point is where the most losses occur for option holders. It’s also a level that can act like a magnet—prices often move toward this zone during expiry.
At expiry, Bitcoin hovered around $85,960, just above its pain point of $85,000, signaling potential downward pressure or engineered stabilization by large players.
Volatility Rising — But Direction Split
What’s next? That depends on how you read the volatility tea leaves.
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Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) showed an upward skew, with calls significantly more expensive than puts. Translation: traders were betting on a breakout.
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Ethereum’s IV curve, on the other hand, looked more neutral—flat, but still showing high interest across the board.
These curves tell us the market expects movement, but is less certain about which way—especially for ETH.
Market Sentiment: Bulls Dream, Bears Prepare
According to analysts at Greeks.live, many traders see BTC as vulnerable to a pullback toward $84K–$85K. With stiff resistance at $88,400 and firm support at $77,000, the current range suggests any breakout will be hard-earned.
Some traders, however, believe the market is simply coiling for its next move, caught in a tight technical pattern. The Q1 close, they argue, could give way to Q2 momentum, especially if macro or regulatory conditions turn favorable.
Why This Expiry Mattered More Than Most
Crypto options typically expire on Fridays, mirroring legacy markets. But quarterly expiries like this one are uniquely influential—they coincide with portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking, and strategic repositioning by institutions.
This expiry was not just a technicality—it was a market stress test.
Looking Ahead: The Q2 Setup
As we head into Q2, traders are watching several key trends:
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Can Bitcoin hold above $85,000 or will it tumble back to support?
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Will Ethereum regain bullish traction beyond $2,500?
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Will implied volatility cool off—or signal more fireworks?
Options markets will likely continue to play a central role in setting the tone, especially as more traditional finance players get involved.
Conclusion
The March 28 options expiry delivered what it promised: volume, volatility, and plenty of speculation. Whether it marks a pivot or just another milestone will depend on how price action unfolds in early Q2. But one thing is clear: as crypto markets mature, these expiry events are becoming critical moments of truth.
FAQs
Why was March 28, 2025, significant for crypto markets?
It marked the largest options expiry of the year, with over $14.21 billion in BTC and ETH contracts expiring — a key event for quarterly market resets and volatility triggers.
What are Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts?
Options are financial derivatives that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell BTC or ETH at a predetermined price. They’re widely used for speculation and hedging.
What is the ‘put-to-call’ ratio and why is it important?
It compares the number of put (bearish) contracts to call (bullish) contracts. A low ratio (below 1) suggests bullish sentiment among traders.
What does ‘maximum pain point’ mean in crypto options?
It's the price at which the most options expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss to options holders. It often acts as a magnet for price movement around expiry.
How do large expiries affect crypto prices?
They can create short-term volatility, push prices toward certain technical levels, and often reflect broader market sentiment shifts, especially around quarter-end.