The global financial system could be heading for a dramatic shift, according to macro strategist Luke Gromen. In a recent video update, Gromen proposed that gold may soon replace U.S. Treasuries as the world’s go-to settlement asset—a change that could create a tailwind for Bitcoin (BTC) as investors look for alternative stores of value.
The Evolving Role of Settlement Assets
Historically, the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities have served as the backbone of international trade and finance. But Gromen argues this model is increasingly unsustainable. As the U.S. seeks to reshore its manufacturing base, it faces a choice: continue exporting financial assets or pivot to producing tangible goods.
That transition, he explains, would likely come at the cost of the dollar’s global dominance. “You can export Treasuries, or you can make stuff,” Gromen says. “You can’t do both indefinitely.”
The solution? Shift to a neutral, commodity-backed settlement asset like gold. Gromen believes this process is already underway, with growing demand for gold by central banks and sovereign entities signaling a long-term pivot away from dollar-based reserves.
Gold’s Quiet Comeback—and What It Signals
One of the more subtle clues in Gromen’s argument lies in trade policy. During his presidency, Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs across global imports—but notably left gold untouched. Gromen interprets this as a deliberate move, possibly to encourage capital flows into gold and prepare the groundwork for a more gold-centric financial order.
In this emerging framework, the dollar would weaken in nominal terms but gain strength structurally through partial gold backing. Such a shift could offer a novel solution to the longstanding issue known as Triffin’s Dilemma—wherein the U.S. must run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars, while trying to maintain confidence in the currency.
Bitcoin: A Digital Parallel to Gold
So where does Bitcoin fit into this thesis?
While gold may serve as the foundational reserve asset, Bitcoin represents a digital alternative—one that appeals to those seeking a decentralized, programmable, and censorship-resistant form of hard money.
“If gold becomes the settlement asset, Bitcoin likely benefits too,” Gromen says. The logic is clear: as faith in fiat wanes and gold gains institutional favor, Bitcoin may rise as the tech-native counterpart to gold’s analog value proposition.
Its finite supply, resistance to inflation, and increasing global accessibility make Bitcoin an attractive hedge—not just for individuals, but for institutions and possibly even sovereign actors looking to diversify away from fiat systems.
Broader Implications: Currency Wars and Monetary Realignment
The rise of gold and Bitcoin as strategic assets could fundamentally reshape how countries interact economically and financially. If more nations seek to de-dollarize by reducing their reliance on Treasuries, the financial landscape could become multi-polar, featuring various competing reserve assets.
This could lead to:
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A diminished role for the U.S. dollar in international trade,
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Increased geopolitical competition over monetary influence,
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And higher volatility as markets adjust to the new paradigm.
In such an environment, Bitcoin could serve as a geopolitical neutral, similar to gold but more agile and borderless.
Conclusion
Luke Gromen’s macro analysis suggests that we are standing at the cusp of a significant monetary transition. As the world re-evaluates the role of U.S. Treasuries and considers a return to gold-backed systems, Bitcoin may quietly rise in the background, gathering momentum as a digital store of value for the modern age.
If gold succeeds in dethroning Treasuries, Bitcoin doesn’t just survive—it thrives.
FAQs
What is Luke Gromen’s main prediction about gold and Treasuries?
Luke Gromen believes that gold could replace U.S. Treasuries as the world’s dominant settlement asset. He argues that this shift would allow the U.S. to support domestic manufacturing without relying on exporting debt and could solve issues tied to the current dollar-reserve system.
Why does Gromen think Bitcoin could benefit from this shift?
As gold becomes a more prominent reserve asset, Gromen sees Bitcoin gaining relevance as its digital counterpart—a scarce, decentralized, and programmable store of value. Investors might increasingly turn to Bitcoin as trust in fiat currencies declines.
What does the exclusion of gold from Trump’s tariffs signify?
Gromen highlights that former President Trump imposed tariffs on most imports but notably excluded gold. This could be interpreted as a signal that U.S. policymakers may view gold as a strategic asset, possibly encouraging its use in future financial frameworks.
What is the relevance of Triffin’s Dilemma in this context?
Triffin’s Dilemma points to the contradiction in a country supplying the global reserve currency: it must run trade deficits to provide global liquidity, which ultimately undermines its currency. Switching to a neutral reserve asset like gold could resolve this dilemma.